时间序列分析方法在郑州市降水量预报中的应用-南水北调与水利科技.PDFVIP

第 12 卷 第4 期 南 水 北 调 与 水 利 科 技 Vol.12 No.4 2014 年 8 月 South2to2 North Water Transfers and Water Science Technology Aug . 2014 DOI: 10. 1 476/ j . cnki. nsbdqk. 2014. 04. 008 吕志涛1, 2 ( 1. 河南省地质调查院, 郑州450001; 2. 河南省地矿局第五地质勘查院, 郑州450001) : 根据 1971 年- 201 年郑州市的降水量资料, 采用二次多项式拟合提取降水量的趋势分量, 采用谐波分析法 提取降水量的周期成分, 利用自回归模型求解随机成分, 最后将三者叠加, 构建了郑州市降水量的预报模型。模型 计算结果与实测数据 比可知, 应用预报模型 降水量进行预报精度较高。因此利用建立的预报模型 2014 年- 2016 三年的降水量进行了预测, 为该区水资源的管理提供依据。 : 降水量; 时间序列分析; 预报; 郑州市 : TV 121. 1 :A : 16722 168 (2014) 04200 520 Application of Time Series Analysis on the Annual Precipitation of Zhengzhou city LVU Zh2i tao1, 2 ( 1. College of Resources and Env ironment,N orth China University of Water Resources and ElectricPower,Zhengzhou 450011, China; 2. H enanI nstitute of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou 45000 , China) Abstract: Time series analysis method has com prehensive import ance and prospects in precipitation forecast. After analyzing pre2 cipitat ion dat a from 1971 to 2009 in Zhengzhou cit y, precipit ation forecasting model w as constructed by time series analysis met hod in the paper .When establishing forcasting model, First, the trend component of precipitation is picked up by quadratic polynomial calibration, the periodic component is ext racted by spectrum analysis and the stochastic component is simulat ed by u2 sing autoregression model. Finally , the forecasting model is established through superposition of these components, and the met hod has been used to forecast the next three years precipitation in the Zhengzhou city . In comparison w ith model calculation results and measured data, the precipit at ion forecast model