发电机组负荷预测模型的设计与实现论文.docVIP

. . .. .. 毕业设计（论文） 题 目 发电机组负荷预测模型的设计与实现 . . .. 发电机组负荷预测模型的设计与实现 摘 要 发电机组负荷预测是实现电力系统优化运行的基础，对于电力系统运行的安全性、可靠性和经济性都有显著影响。因此，寻求有效的负荷预报方法以提高预报精度具有重要意义。迄今为止，研究人员已经提出了许多有效的方法。本文应用目前较为流行的神经网络方法对发电机组负荷进行预报。 本文采用神经网络预测模型,输入变量和确定神经网络结构的方法和算法,此方法的提出可以使得从历史样本知识数据到最终预测模型的建模过程变得简单明了,便于实际应用。通过去发电厂实际调研获得真实有效的数据，训练神经网络，使得网络能够正确的预测出负荷变化的实际规律。同时也参考了发电厂的现用的预测方法对神经网络结构加以改善，使得网络结构趋于完善。 最后总结了本文的主要研究工作与收获，提出了一些改进方案，并介绍了发电机组负荷预报的发展前景。 关键词：发电机组、负荷预测、BP神经网络、DPS数据处理系统、预测模型 Abstract Generator load forecasting is foundation to achieve optimal operation of power system, it has significant impact on the security, reliability and economy of power system operation. Therefore, seeking effective load forecasting method is of great significance for improving forecast accuracy. So far, researchers have proposed many effective methods. This article more popular neural network method is applied to generator load forecasting at present. In this paper, using the neural network prediction model, the input variables and the determining method of neural network structure and algorithm, this method can make knowledge from the historical sample data to the final forecasting model of the modeling process becomes simple and clear, easy to practical application. Through to obtain real and effective power plant actual survey data, the neural network, enables the network to correctly predict the actual rule of load change. Also refer to the power of current forecast methods of neural network structure to improve, make the perfect network structure. Finally summarizes the main research work and the harvest, puts forward some improvement scheme, and introduces the development prospect of generator load forecasts. Keywords: generator, load forecasting, neural network, data processing system, prediction model .. .. 目 录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \z \u HYPERLINK \l _Toc391316357 第一章 绪论 PAGEREF _Toc391316357 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc391316358 1.1 研究背景与意义 PAGEREF _Toc391316358 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc391316359 1.1.1 研究背景 PA