海河流域水生态环境破坏的经济损失估算-中国科技论文在线.PDFVIP

中国农村水利水电·2006年第1期 33 文章编号：1007—2284(2006)01 0033—05 海河流域水生态环境破坏的经济损失估算 王亚华，张 宁，施祖麟 (清华大学公共管理学院，北京100084) 摘 要：利用多种方法估算海河流域水生态环境破坏造成的经济损失，并综合已有相关研究，认为1999年的经济损 失相当于流域GDP的0．63 ～16．6 。利用影子价格法估算的经济损失相当于流域GDP的7．3 海河流域现状水 生态环境恶化造成的相对经济损失值处在历史高峰期。未来在实施南水北调工程及按照规划开展大规模节水挖潜举措 的前提下，经济损失的相对量将大为减少，但是绝对经济损失量可能还会有所增大。向流域节水挖潜领域的项目投资， 会给全社会带来较高的经济收益。 关键词：海河；水生态环境；经济损失；影子价格 中图分类号：F224 文献标识码：A An Estimate of Economic Losses Caused by Water Eco-Environment Deterioration in the Hai River Basin Ⅵ，ANG Ya-hua，ZHANG Ning。SHI Zu-lin (School of Public Policy＆Management，Tsinghua University，Beijing 100084) Abstract：Using diverse methods to estimate the economic losses caused by water ecosystem deterioration in the Hai River Basin and referencing the foregoing studies，this paper concludes the economic losses ranged from 0．63 to 16．6 percent of total river basins GDP in 1 999．The authors recommend 7．3 percent of GDP as a reasonable value．which is calculated by the method of Shadow Price． Current relative economic losses have reached the peak value in the history．Under the preconditions of constructing the Water Transfer from South to North and implementation of water-saving technique according to the planning，the relative economic losses will decrease greatly and the absolute economic losses will be still inclined to rise in the nextcades．The investment in the proieets of water-saving reform will bring notable economic returns to the whole society． Key Words：Hai River basin；water ecosystem~economic losses；shadow price 新的题目，其难度比较大，目前还没有针对海河流域的完整计 1 研究方法