中国教育收益率统计估计与分析CORE.PDFVIP

　第 26 卷第 7 期 统计研究 Vol . 26 , No7 2009 年 7 月 Statistical Research Jul . 2009 　 中国教育收益率统计估计与分析 ———基于参数和半参数估计方法的比较 钱争鸣　易莹莹 　　内容提要 :本文分别运用参数和半参数估计方法 ,就如何更准确有效测度中国教育收益率作深入探讨 。利用 CHNS 数据对我国 1989 年至 2006 年的教育收益率进行估计 ,并采用 Hausman 检验法对两种估计方法结果进行检 验 。结果表明 ,从估计效率看 ,前者比后者的效率更高 ;但从估计效果看 ,后者才是一致性估计 。而且我们发现虽 然教育收益率整体呈逐渐增加趋势 ,但与实物资本收益率相比仍偏低 。中国的教育和劳动力市场亟需加大投资和 改革力度 。 关键词 :教育收益率 ;选择偏差 ;参数估计 ;半参数估计 ( ) 中图分类号 :C812 　　　文献标识码 :A 　　　文章编号 :1002 - 4565 2009 07 - 0043 - 06 The Estimation and Analysis of the Rate of Return on Education in China ———A comparison of parametric and semiparametric estimation methods Qian Zhengming Yi Yingying Abstract :This paper uses CHNS data to estimate the rate of return on education in China during 1989 to 2006 based on Mincer wages function . We apply parametric and semiparametric methods to estimate the models , and further compare these two models using the Hausman test . The results indicate that the former is more efficient than the latter from the perspective of estimation efficiency , but it is opposite from the perspective of estimation accuracy. In other words , the latter is a consistent estimator while the former is a biased one . Moreover , despite the fact that the rate of return on education trends toward a gradual increase , it is still much lower than the rate of return on capital in kind. Both the education market and the labor market in China need substantial investments and substa