基于贝叶斯网络的配电系统可靠性评估-农业电气化与自动化专业论文.docxVIP

摘要 摘要 配电系统可靠性评估是电力系统可靠性评估中重要环节之一，对其进行可靠性研 究具有非常重要的理论意义和巨大的社会经济价值。在常规可靠性计算中，仅计算系 统各项可靠性指标，很少涉及可靠性最薄弱环节的识别，而识别电力系统可靠性最薄 弱环节，具有非常重要的意义。 文中简要介绍了贝叶斯网络的基本概念，深入研究了常用的推理算法，并在此基 础上编写了基于桶消元的贝叶斯网络推理程序。在分析常规电力系统可靠性评估方法 的基础上，提出了基于贝叶斯网络的配电系统可靠性评估方法。该方法首先建立配电 系统可靠性评估的贝叶斯网络模型，然后利用贝叶斯网络推理对配电系统进行可靠性 分析。文中编写了配电系统可靠性评估的贝叶斯网络自动生成工具，从而极大地减少 了贝叶斯网络的建立时间，提高了模型的准确性。 将贝叶斯网络方法应用于配电系统的可靠性评估中，利用贝叶斯网络对不确定性 知识的灵活表示，较好地解决了系统负荷预测的不确定性问题。运用贝叶斯网络灵活 的因果推理和诊断推理，不但能够进行配电网的可靠性指标评估，还可以识别系统的 薄弱环节。 以Microsoft Visual C++6．0为开发工具开发了配电系统可靠性评估软件。该软 件运用高级面向对象技术和图形化的手段，运用贝叶斯网络对配电系统进行可靠性指 标的计算，并定量地分析系统的薄弱环节，通过对数据的分析处理，得出较传统方法 更有意义的结论。最后，用IEEE RBTS母线2配电系统作为实验系统验证了此方法的 正确性和软件的有效性。因此，基于贝叶斯网络推理的配电系统可靠性评估是一种较 好的方法。 关键词：配电系统；可靠性评估；贝叶斯网络；故障模式后果分析法 Reliability Reliability Assessment of Distribution Systems Based on Bayesian Networks Xie Yunfang (Electrification and Automation ofAgriculture) Directed by Prof．Huo Limin Abstraet The distribution systems reliability assessment iS one of the most important part of power systems reliability assessment．The reliability assessment study to generation systems iS of critical theoretic significance and great social economic worth．In general reliability assessment computation．only are the reliability indices computated．1ittle has been done to identify the weak components．However，identifying the weak components is very important． The paper briefly introduces the basal conception of Bayesian networks．then further studys the general inference algorithm，and the Bayesian networks inference program based on bucket elimination is developed．Atier analysing the usual reliability assessment methods。a new reliability assessment method based on Bayesian networks is presented． The process of this method iS as follows：Firstly,build the Bayesian networks models for distribution systems reliability assessment；secondly,anayse the distribution systems reliability by using Bayesian networks inference program．The Bayesian networks automatic generator tool of distribution systems reliability assessment