江苏省城市火灾的时间序列分析-安全技术及工程专业论文.docxVIP

AbstractFire Abstract Fire differs from the nature disaster remarkably of its close relationship with human behaviors，which are affected by the socioeconomic factors．In this paper, some research on the relationship of socioeconomic factors and fire in China is carried out．Correlation analysis shows that in China，socioeconomic factors have notable influence on fire．But the degree of correlation between them in China is different from that in other countries Fire occurrences in a particular building are really rare events．So the fire occurrences in a city can be approximated POISSON distribution with parameter九 which is defined fire force．Based on the data from Fire statistics annual of Jiangsu， the fire rates of 6 city of Jiangsu can be obtained and it can be found that there is the identifiable seasonality presents by the Stable Seasonality Test and Moving seasonality tests．With the method of Time series decomposing，the series of fire force can be decomposed in two series，the series of trend circle factor and the series of seasonal factor．The series of trend circle factor and the series of seasonal factor both presents the periodicity and the reason is given in the article Furthermore Time Series Method was used to analyze the effect of the fire disaster and serious fire on fire occurrence in 6 cities respectively from January 1997 to December 200 1 in Jiangsu province．After removing outliers in the irregular component of original data series and seasonal adj ustment，Intervention Model was used to model the effect of the fire disaster and serious fire on monthly fire occurrence rate of these cities in Jiangsu province．The results show that the impact on monthly fire occurrence numbers lasts over 3 month·—lag for eight cities and 2 month-·lag for two cities．Other phenomenon was detected in these 6 cities．Some explanations have been given finally．The relationship between 6 cities in Jiangsu seasonality factor of fire occurrence from 1 997-200 1 and weather factors