结合可拓理论的技术预见模型研究与分析-软件工程专业论文.docxVIP

广东工业大学硕士学位论文虽然已经取得了初步的成功，但是笔者仍在对该领域进行进一步的研究：如何引 广东工业大学硕士学位论文 虽然已经取得了初步的成功，但是笔者仍在对该领域进行进一步的研究：如何引 入计算机高速运算的特点，对技术预见、可拓创新和计算机算法进行融合，产生一个 通过计算机处理海量数据而不是依靠人脑从而造成误差的模型。这样当遇到海量数据 进行评估评优时，就可以避免人脑主观判断而造成的结果偏差。 关键词：技术预见；可拓学：物元理论；第二创造法；蚁群算法 II 万方数据 ABSTRACTABSTRACT ABSTRACT ABSTRACT After entering the twenty—first Century,the outcome of the technology foresight activities has become the guarantee of comprehensive national strength competition． However,in the specific technology foresight activities，the researchers found that Delphi method to establish the technology foresight research system has many limitations： subjective reasons include excessive dependence on large economic organization of funds to organize to carry OUt the research cycle，the span is too long cause subject conclusion deviation,Delphi data itself is static and will not immediately update；objective reasons including China itself and in the stage of social development，science and technology and economic system is not perfect and SO on．The limitations of technology foresight often result in fatal impact the accuracy of the final results of the research project．In this situation,to fmd and develop new technology foresight means to build strategic plan for the development of science and technology is the most important．The main research content of this paper is how to combine the extension theory and technology foresight actiV埘 framework and create new system architecture and flow method which is suitable for the application of extension and innovation method． According to the characteristics of technology foresight method，the author from the purpose，the needs of society,the expert consensus，time span and dynamic process and other aspects of the extension thinking for evaluation；and then on the basis of the extension theory of technology foresight，design new model and method of technology foresight process： from the technology foresight process”to determine the expert the team”，”social economic survey”before th