人民币汇率波动下外汇储备累积及宏观金融关系探究.pdf

2000 400044 “” 2000 1 ~2008 2 ARCH TVP 0.09 1 0.08 0.689 TVP FDI 1 1 “ ” ARCH TVP An Inquiry for the Relationship between Acumination of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Volatilities of Macro-Financial Economy under the out-ward Imbalance Empirical Test Based on the time series since 2000 Abstracts Since China reformed the exchange rate system, external economic imbalances has become government departments and foreign exchange management of the thorny issue. Against this background, the paper selected in Jan. 2000 to Fer.2008 time-series data test brought about by the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, macro-economic and financial volatility, with ARCH models and TVP model for dynamic analysis, concluded that: in the foreign exchange reserves Long-term effects of price fluctuations, while the output of the impact of short-term nature; on economic growth dynamic volatility factor 0.09 .External imbalances under 1 small fluctuations in economic growth; but slow growth period of increased volatility; on the macro-financial impact is just the opposite ( 0.08 and 0.689 .TVP model test that 1 1 domestic output and the increase in FDI flows to fluctuations in international payments is not the main factors, while imports and foreign exchange reserves accounted for the balance of payments shall be missing an important measurement factor. Finally, comprehensive analysis, using the exchange rate, interest rates,