河北玉米干旱风险评价及区划方法.PDF

华北农学报20 08 , 23 ( 增刊) : 36 737 2 1, 2 1, 2 1, 2 1, 2 1, 3 4 张文宗 , 王 鑫 , 康西言 , 魏瑞江 , 刘晶淼 , 张 超 ( 1. , 050021; 2. , 050021; 3. , 100081; 4. , 050016) : 0. 5 1. 5 , 3% , , , , , 3 , : ; ; ; : S165 : A : 1000- 7091( 2008) - 0367- 06 Risk Assessment and Division of Maize Drought Hazard in Hebei Province ZHANG Wenong1, 2, WANG Xin1, 2, KANG Xiyan1,2 , WEI Ruijiang1, 2, LIU Jingmiao1, 3, ZHANG Chao4 ( 1.Hebei Key Laboratory for Meteorology and EcoEnvironment , Shijia huang 050021, China; 2. Meteorological Science Insititute of Hebei Province, Shijia huang 050021, China; 3. Chinese Academy Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 4, College of Resource and Environment in Hebei Normal University, Shijia huang 050016, China) Abstract:Different levels of arid years being defined respectively by the 0. 5 times and 1. 5 times standard deviational of the annual precipitation mean values, and then mai e arid disaster year being confirmed by whether the me teorological equivalent yield reduction should be greater than three percent , this paper analy ed the mai e average decreas ing rate in drought years and its spatial distribution in various cities of Hebei Province, and studied the frequency distribu tion raw of the mai e drought ha ard with different intensities. From point of view on risk analysis of disasters, this study presented a methodology for risk assessment and division of mai e drought ha ard in Hebei Province, inculding the con cept , calculation method, and regional distribution of the disaster risk index. The average decreasing rate, drought ha ard risk indexes and annual precipitation were selected as factors dominanting insurance of drought ha ard, based on which, the mai