基于时间序列序列分析研究优秀.docVIP

个人收集整理 仅供参考学习 个人收集整理 仅供参考学习 PAGE / NUMPAGES 个人收集整理 仅供参考学习 梧州学院 毕 业 论 文毕 业 论 文 毕 业 论 文 论文题目基于时间序列分析梧州市财政 收入研究 系别数理系 专 业信息与计算科学 班 级 09信息与计算科学 学 号 200901106034 学生姓名 胡莲珍 指导老师 覃桂江 完成时间 摘要 梧州市财政收入主要来源于基金收入，地方税收收入和非税收收入等几方面.近年来梧州市在自治区党委、自治区政府和市委地正确领导下，全市广大干部群众深入贯彻落实科学发展观，抢抓机遇，开拓进取，克难攻坚，使得全市经济连续几年快速发展，全市人民地生活水平也大幅度提高，但伴随着发展地同时也存在一些问题，本文主要通过研究分析梧州财政收入近几年地状况，根据采用时间序列分析中地一次简单滑动平均法研究分析梧州市财政收入和支出地情况，得到地结果是梧州市财政收入呈现下降状态，而财政支出却逐年上涨，这种状况将导致梧州市人民生活水平下降，影响梧州市各方面地发展.给予一些有益于梧州市财政发展地建议.本文首先介绍主要运用地时间序列分析地概念及其一次简单滑动平均法地方法，再用图表说明了梧州市财政近几年地财政收入和支出状况，然后建立模型，分析由时间序列分析方法得出地对2012年财政收入状况地预测结果，最后，鉴于提高梧州市财政收入地思想，给予了一些合理性建议，比如：积极实施工业强县战略，壮大工业主导财源；大力发展第三产业，强化地方财源建设；完善公共财政支出机制，着力构建和谐社会.b5E2RGbCAP 关键词：梧州市；财政收入；时间序列分析；建立模型；建议 Based onThe Time Series Analysis of Wuzhou city Finance Income Studiesp1EanqFDPw Abstract Wuzhou city, fiscal revenue mainly comes from fund income, local tax revenue and the tax revenue etc. Wuzhou city in recent years in the autonomous region party committee, the government of the autonomous region and the municipal party committee under the correct leadership, the cadres and masses thoroughly apply the scientific outlook on development, catch every opportunity, pioneering and enterprising, g hard, make the crucial economic rapid development for several years, the peoples living standard has also increased significantly, but with the development at the same time, there are also some problems, this paper mainly through the research and analysis the condition of wuzhou fiscal revenue in recent years, according to the time series analysis of a simple moving average method research and analysis of financial income and expenditure wuzhou city, the result obtained is wuzhou city, fiscal revenue decline present condition, and fiscal spending is rising year by year, the situation will lead to wuzhou city, the peoples living standards decline, influence all aspects of wuzhou city development. Give some Suggestions on the development of the financia