IT项目进度计划风险量化预测方法①.PDFVIP

2013 年 第 22 卷 第 12 期 计 算 机 系 统 应 用 IT 项目进度计划风险量化预测方法① 1 2 3 张丽君 , 赵俊岚 , 郭树行 1( 内蒙古财经大学 计算机信息管理学院, 呼和浩特 010070) 2( 内蒙古财经大学 网络中心, 呼和浩特 010070) 3( 中央财政金融大学 信息学院, 北京 102206) 摘 要: 针对 IT 项目进度基线定义质量普遍偏低的问题, 提出了一种资源约束条件下基于蒙特卡洛模拟的进度 风险量化评估方法. 首先, 考虑资源对进度的限制问题, 提出资源约束条件下的活动历时抽样方法; 其次, 提出 在活动历时随机变化情况下, 项目关键路径动态识别方法, 研究项目工期概率分布问题. 最后, 通过实例表明, 资源约束条件下的蒙特卡洛模拟方法, 能够有效地评估 IT 项目中的进度风险, 辅助项目决策. 关键词: 资源约束; 蒙特卡洛模拟; IT 项目进度; 风险量化评估 Quantification Prediction Method of Production Developement Schedule Risk 1 2 3 ZHANG Li-Jun , ZHAO Jun-Lan , GUO Shu-Hang 1(Computer Information Management College, Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics, Hohhot 010070, China) 2(Department of Network Information Center, Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics, Hohhot 010070, China) 3(Information College, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 102206, China) Abstract: Given the generally low quality of Production Development schedule baseline definition, an evaluation method of project schedule risk quantification based on Monte Carlo simulation under the conditions of resource constraints is proposed. Firstly, considering the resource constraints on the progress, an activity duration sampling method under resource constraints is proposed. Secondly, to study the probability distribution of project duration, a method to recognize the critical path to a project dynamically is proposed under the random change in the activity duration. Finally, examples will show that Monte Carlo simulation methods under resource constraints can assess the progress risk of IT pro