中国进出口贸易现状分析..docVIP

目录 TOC \o 1-3 \u 摘 要 = 1 \* ROMAN I Abstract = 1 \* ROMAN I 1.导论………………………………………………………………………………………………………...1 2.数据处理与统计分析1 2.1数据样本与变量指标1 2.1.1数据来源1 2.1.2数据处理2 2.2统计分析2 2.2.1相关分析2 2.2.2初步OLS回归3 2.2.3平稳性检验5 2.2.4协整检验10 2.2.5 ECM误差修正模型11 2.2.6对回归模型的检查11 2.2.7迭代估计法13 2.2.8预测14 3.结论16 4.政策建议16 参考文献： 16 摘 要 根据1978年～2012年我国GDP和进出口贸易的相关数据,本文运用协整理论和ECM误差修正模型、迭代估计法相关知识,对我国GDP和进出口贸易的关系进行检验。结果表明,1978年～2012年,我国GDP和进出口贸易的相关数据之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;通过对GDP和进出口关系的模型的估计可以看出进出口总额的增长都会带来GDP的增长，而且进口对GDP增长的解释能力较强;并且对GDP进行了2013和2014年的回归预测。因此我国应适度扩大进口,改善出口产品结构，提高出口产品质量水平,构建核心竞争力,以减少出口受国外经济环境变化而影响GDP增长的稳定。 关键词：GDP；进出口；协整理论；ECM误差修正模型； Abstract According to the 1978 ~ 2012 Chinas GDP and import and export trade related data, by using the theory of Cointegration 、correction model of error ECM 、 modified iterative estimation model, to test the relationship of GDP and the import and export trade. The results show that, from 1978 to 2012, there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between Chinas GDP and the related data of import and export trade; by estimating the GDP and import Export relationship model can be seen in the total import and export volume growth will bring about the growth of GDP, and the import has stronger ability to explain the growth of GDP; and the regression forecast of 2013 and 2014. Therefore, our country should be appropriate to expand imports, improve the structure of export products, improve the export product quality level, to build the core competitiveness, to reduce the impact of foreign economic environment changes on the growth of GDP stability. Key Words：GDP; import and export; cointegration theory ;correction model of error ECM; = 1 \* ROMAN I PAGE \* MERGEFORMA