现代气候学第6章海-气相互作用_2016.ppt

An? example? of? prediction? of? El Ni?o? SST? by? a? NCEP coupled? ocean-atmosphere model six? months? in? advance? during? 1997-98? El Ni?o? event. Prediction of El Ni?o? SST Predictions? by? the? coupled? ocean-atmosphere? model? of ECMWF? 1997-98? El Ni?o? event? and? verification? with observations.? The? black? curve? is? the? observations.? Each? bunch? of? colored? lines? represent? an? ensemble? of? prediction.? Ensemble? of? prediction? 哥伦比亚大学IRI International Research Institute for Climate and Society Season La Ni?a Neutral El Ni?o ASO 2007 60% 39% 1% SON 2007 58% 41% 1% OND 2