太湖流域不同管理模式的社会经济环境系统演化模拟.pdf

中国环境科学 2010,30(Suppl.) ：79~85 China Environmental Science 太湖流域不同管理模式的社会经济环境系统演化模拟 * 刘小峰,盛昭瀚 ,金 帅 (南京大学工程管理学院,江苏 南京 210093 ；南京大学社会科学计算实验中心,江苏 南 京 210093) 摘要：基于复杂自适应系统理论构建了社会经济环境系统模型,采用计算实验方法模拟分析了太湖流域在经济优先和水环境保护优先 2 种 管理模式下的动态演化过程,得到了农业与工业经济发展水平、就业状况和水环境改善情况的演化规律.结果表明,在综合考虑社会、经济、 水环境的基础上,2 种管理模式均能在一定程度上实现经济和就业的增长, 同时改善水环境.环境保护优先模式虽能有效保护水环境,却会牺 牲部分经济发展和就业保证.不同地区在演化过程中表现出差异性,常州和湖州经济获得较快增长;苏州、上海在就业方面做出较大贡献;无 锡和苏州水环境改善效果最为明显. 关键词：社会经济环境系统；计算实验；太湖流域；管理模式；时滞效应；演化 中图分类号：X321 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2010)S0-0079-07 Simulation of society, economics and water environment evolution in Taihu Lake Basin under different governance * modes. LIU Xiao-feng, SHENG Zhao-han , JIN Shuai (School of Management and Engineering, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China; Computational Experiment Center for Social Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China). China Environmental Science, 2010,30(Suppl.)：79~85 Abstract ：A system model based on complex adaptive system theory was created in order to explore the evolution law of a socio-economic environment system under different governance modes. A computational experiment method was used to demonstrate the dynamics of economic growth, employment, and discharge of water pollutants discharge caused by agriculture and industry development under modes of governance which prioritize economic development, or environmental protection. The evolutionary result demonstrates that based on the comprehensive consideration of society, economics and water environment both modes of governance not only promote economic growth and employment, but also improve water environment protection. However, prioritizing environmental protection results in more efficient water environment prot