基于系统动力学的城市公交服务水平动态仿真研究-交通运输工程专业论文.docxVIP

万方数据 万方数据 摘 要 公共交通系统作为社会经济系统的子系统，对社会进步和经济发展发挥着重要的作 用。随着经济的发展和居民收入水平的不断提高，人们对公共交通的服务水平提出了更 高的要求。为了满足城市居民的出行需求，应对个体交通的竞争，增强公共交通的吸引 力，公共交通必须提高服务水平。 本文在公共交通服务质量和乘客满意度理论基础上，运用系统动力学的基本理论、 原理和方法，以定性和定量方法相结合，研究公共交通动态系统的结构和行为，建立常 规公共交通服务水平系统动力学模型。 首先，在相关理论的基础上分析了影响公共交通服务水平的内外部因素，确定公共 交通服务水平指标和权重，从系统的角度确定问题和系统的边界，研究公共交通需求、 公共交通供给、公共交通政策以及公共交通服务水平等常规公共交通系统构成要素间的 互动关系以及各个模块要素的因果关系和因果反馈关系，并绘制常规公共交通服务水平 的系统动力学模型的流图，并建立了系统动力学模型。 其次，以北京市为例根据现有的资料和统计数据，进行参数估计并编写系统动力学 方程，利用模拟软件 VENSIM 输出关键变量的值验证了常规公共交通系统动力学模型 的有效性和可行性，运行模型并预测北京市常规公共交通服务水平的未来发展趋势。通 过不同政策和政策合并方案下的模拟结果比选提高公共交通服务水平的政策方案，根据 比选方案为城市交通决策机构提出相应的政策建议。 关键词：公共交通，服务水平，系统动力学，政策模拟 I Abstract As the subsystem of the social economy system, the public transport system plays an important role in social progress and economic development. With the development of economy and the continuous improvement of residents income level, higher requirements for the service level of public transport have been made. In order to meet the travel needs of urban residents, to cope with the competition against individual traffic, and to enhance the attraction of public transport, the service level of public transportation must be raised. Based on the theory of public traffic service quality and passenger satisfaction, applying the basic theory, the principle and method of system dynamics, and combined with qualitative and quantitative methods, the thesis researches the structure and behaviors of public traffic dynamic system. Hence, dynamics model of service level of the common public transport is established. First of all, on the basis of related theory the thesis analyzes of the internal and external factors which influences the level of public transport services, public transportation service level indicators and the corresponding weights from the standpoint of system. Then it determines the problem and the boundary of the system, the interactive relationship between the elements of public transport service level and causality and causal feedback, and