广州珠海城轨运营对公路客运的影响分析及应对策略研究-交通运输工程专业论文.docxVIP

Research on the effects of Guangzhou-Zhuhai intercity rail on highway passenger transport and its countermeasures A Dissertation Submitted for the Degree of Master Candidate：Luo Chengzhen Supervisor：Prof. Hu Dawei Chang’an University, Xi’an, Chin 摘 要 随着广珠城轨的开通运营，广珠通道内原有的运输格局被打破，公路客运长期的垄 断地位受到严峻的挑战和巨大的冲击。因此，从两种运输方式的协调发展和有序竞争的 角度出发，采用旅客出行问卷调查深入研究广珠通道内旅客出行特征，有助于揭示广珠 通道旅客出行方式选择的规律，为制定公路客运企业应对广珠城轨竞争的相关对策奠定 理论基础。 论文在对比分析行为调查和意向调查优缺点的基础上，提出采用基于行为调查和意 向调查联合的调查方法对广珠通道内旅客出行方式选择行为进行调查；通过对运输方式 的供给特性和旅客出行的需求特性进行分析，完成调查问卷内容的设计；采用简单随机 抽样调查的方法确定调查样本量，并阐述调查的实施过程。从旅客个人属性特征、旅客 出行特征和旅客对运输方式的认知特性三个方面，论文分析广珠通道旅客出行特征。在 对比分析非集计方法优缺点的基础上，提出二项 Logit 模型构建广珠通道内客流分担率 预测模型；按照加法规则，从经济性、舒适性、安全性、服务质量、快捷性和方便性六 个方面构建效用函数，并采用无量纲化方法对变量进行无量纲化处理；通过构建 的广 珠通道内客流分担率预测 2014 年两种运输方式的分担率，并采用敏感性分析方法探讨 公路客运企业的应对措施的效果。主要从微观、中观、宏观三个层面全方位地提出公路 客运的应对策略。 关键词：广珠城轨；公路客运；客流分担率；Logit 模型；效用函数；应对策略 i PAGE PAGE iii PAGE PAGE iv Abstract With the operation of Guangzhou-Zhuhai intercity rail, the original transportation structure of Guangzhou-Zhuhai transport corridor has been changed greatly. Therefore, the passenger travel questionnaire survey was carried out from the aspect of coordinated development and orderly competition of the two kinds of transportation mode. The characteristics of passenger travel in Guangzhou-Zhuhai corridor was deeply analyzed, which helps to reveal the law of passenger travel mode choice, and lays the theoretical foundation for relevant countermeasures of highway passenger transport enterprises coping with the competition of Guangzhou-Zhuhai intercity rail. On the basis of the comparative analysis of reveal preference and stated preference, the combined survey method was selected to investigate passenger travel mode choice behavior in Guangzhou-Zhuhai corridor. The supply characteristics of transport mode and the demand characteristics of passenger travel were analyzed, and the content of questionnaire was designed. The investigation method of simple random sampling was used to determine th