毕业论文--基于人工神经网络的电力系统短期负荷预测.docVIP

HUNAN UNIVERSITY 毕 业 论 文 论文题目 基于人工神经网络的电力 系统短期负荷预测 学生姓名 学生学号 专业班级 学院名称 电气与信息工程学院 指导老师 学院院长 2015 年5 月 30 日 湖南大学毕业设计(论文) 第 PAGE II 页 摘 要 电力负荷预测是电力系统运行与调度中一项非常重要的任务，它是保证电力系统安全经济运行和实现电网科学管理及调度的必要条件，是能量管理系统(EMS)的组成部分，也是今后电力市场运营所必需的基本内容。 随着科学技术的发展，负荷预测技术也有当初的依赖电力调度人员技术的传统预测方式发展到现在的自动预测技术，目前，负荷预测能够考虑到更多的影响负荷变化的因素，预测水平和精度也在不断提高。本文侧重于一种新兴的预测技术，基于人工神经网络的电力系统负荷预测。 本文首先对电力负荷预测的现有方法进行了综述。其次，深入研究了神经网络的模型建立问题，并提出了较为适用的建模方法和应遵循的原则。在研究了大量文献资料的基础上，通过分析短期电力负荷的各种重要因素，构建了一个三层BP 神经网络，并用历史负荷数据对该BP神经网络进行了训练，然后，应用该BP神经网络对短期电力负荷进行了预测。预测结果表明，基于BP神经网络的电力短期负荷预测的精度相对传统方法有了很大程度的提高，从而证明人工神经网络在电力短期负荷预测领域中的有效性和可靠性。 关键词：负荷预测技术，人工神经网络，BP网络 Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Short-Term Load Forecasting Abstract Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is one of the most important tasks in the operation and economic dispatching of power system. It is a prerequisite to ensure the safe and economic operation of power system, and to realize the goal of scientific management in the power system. And it is an important part of energy management system as well as a necessary part of market operation in the electric power market. Whit the development of science and technology,load forecasting has developed by the traditional means relying on the experiences of the technician to the automatically forecasting technology,which is able to contain more factors impacting the changes of the load.The level and accuracy of load is increasing improved.This article focuses on a new prediction technique,the power system load forecasting basing on neural network. This paper firstly gives a summary for the present methods of power load forecasting; Secondly, it makes a deep research on the issues of the modeling of ANN, and gives a set of modeling methods and principles.On the basis of analyzing a large number of reference materials, this paper analyzes various important factors of electric power load, and constructs a three-layer BP neural network which is trained with historical electric