广州石滩镇增江石滩河段水环境承载力研究-水文学及水资源专业论文.docxVIP

摘 摘 爱 摘 要 J“州石潍镇是J“州市试点中心镇之一，流经该镇的增江石潍河段作为该镇的 供水和纳污河段，其水环境变化将直接影响到社会经济的发展。为了避免走“先 污染后治理”的老路，分析该地的水环境容量，实现经济社会全面健康持续发展， 对其水环境承载力的研究就显得尤为重要。 本文首先在前人的研究基础上对水资源承载力和水环境承载力在概念上进 行了比较和区别，并进一步完善了水环境承载力的概念。从石滩河段的水环境现 状出发，结合石滩镇生态保护和污染控制的远景规划目标，对污染物排放的分类 与结构进行了分析，并在此基础上计算出河段的水环境容量。对于石滩镇社会经 济与水环境形成的巨系统，采用系统动力学方法进行研究，并借助Vensim软件 建立水环境承载力模型。模型模拟了在河段可利用水环境容量的基础上，通过计 算分析不同决策、不同水平年时的水环境承载力指数，提出既能保护该镇水环境、 又符合该中心镇的社会经济可持续发展需要的决策和措施。 关键词； 增江石滩河段 水环境承载力 水环境容量系统动力学模型层 次分析法决策 AbsffaclA Absffacl A Study 011 Carrying Capacity of Water Environment about Shitan Reach of Zengjiang River in Guangzhou Abstract Shitan Town is one of the experimental centers of Guangzhou．The Shitan Reach of the Zengjiang River has both the water supply capacity and the pollutant carrying capacity．If water environment is changed，the economy development and social progress will be greatly affected．Therefore，it’s of great importance to study the carrying capacity of water environment． In this paper,two main concepts，the carrying capacity of water resource and the carrying capacity of water environment，were clearly introduced，especially the latter． According to the current water environment of Shitan Reach，as well the purpose in protecting the entironment and controlling the pollution，the cause of the contamination discharge was analyzed．The water environment capacity was calculated，too．The system dynamics method was selected to study the huge system which is formed by social economy and water environment．At the same time，the model on the carrying capacity of water environment was built using Vensim．This model simulated the index of the carrying capacity of water environment in different decision and different level year on the basis of the water environment capacity available to us．After the index of the carrying capacity of water environment has been analyzed，the necessary measures which would not only protect the water environment but also be coherent with the sustainable development of social economy were brought