Analysis of traffic accident injury severity on Spanish rural highways using Bayesian networks基于贝叶斯网络的西班牙乡村公路交通事故伤害严重度分析.pdfVIP

Accident Analysis and Prevention 43 (2011) 402–411 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Accident Analysis and Prevention j o u rn al h omepage: w w w. elsev /locate/aap Analysis of traffic accident injury severity on Spanish rural highways using Bayesian networks ˜ ∗,1 1 Juan de O na , Randa Oqab Mujalli , Francisco J. Calvo TRYSE Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Granada, ETSI Caminos, Canales y Puertos, c/Severo Ochoa, s/n, 18071 Granada, Spain a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: Several different factors contribute to injury severity in traffic accidents, such as driver characteristics, Received 18 June 2010 highway characteristics, vehicle characteristics, accidents characteristics, and atmospheric factors. This Received in revised form paper shows the possibility of using Bayesian Networks (BNs) to classify traffic accidents according to 16 September 2010 their injury severity. BNs are capable of making predictions without the need for pre assumptions and Accepted 23 September 2010 are used to make graphic representations of complex systems with interrelated components. This paper presents an analysis of 1536 accidents on rural highways in Spain, where 18 variables representing the Keywords: aforementioned contributing factors were used to build