吉林省县域农业生产研究-数量经济学专业论文.docxVIP

AbstractThe Abstract The m咖content oftllis article is to咖dy觚d analysis of jilin proV妇e agricultLlre，fiVe ch印ter content discussed in this paper． FirSt，i11 this paperⅡ1e oVerall agricultIⅡal resources of jilin proVince are ～ described herein．Combimng preViouS research acllieVements，aIld according to t11e agricultural resources，j ilill proVmce is diVided into the、Ⅳestem regional，in the central p12Lin，tlle eastem BanSh2u10u，changbai mountain region． Secondly，by using伊ey theory，me ci哆and couII哆a西cultural iIldust巧 characteristics are a11alyzed．AccordiIlg t0 the黟ey relational size，to mal(e sWe mat each coumies of me Special indus时．Then using global aIld Mom in jiliIl proVince sub—regional sca：tte印10t c胁of a面culture，foreS臼％砌mal husballdⅨfishery di嘶bution descriptive a11a】ysis． 一一 Agaillusing伊ey relation廿leory of con．elation analysis of协dust巧and products． AccordiIlg to t11e grey relatioIlal size，to make sure mat each co眦Ities of characteriStic a鲥cultu】闭productS．Then use t11e graly t11eo巧predicts jilin demalld a11d supply of m勾or agricultural products． nleIl，using ul仃a—e师cient DEA m砒od ofjilin画cultural co眦ties iIl 2009 the input-ou印ut e伍ciency锄甜ysis； And USES 廿1e MalmquiSt i11deX c甜culated 1 995—2009 counties of jilin proViIlce a酣cultural production e衔ciency Vmue，and attempts t0 aIlalyze廿le causes． Finally，according t0吐le research resultS of jiliIl proVince，tlle ci够alld collrl_ty a鲥cultural deVelopmem pm forward its own proposals． Keywords：a酣cultural resources Mom DEA MalmquiSt grey co盯elation IJ 目 目 录 中文摘要 ．．I 英文摘要 Ⅱ 弓I 言 ． 1 一、吉林省农业概述 j 6 (一)吉林省农业资源概述 ．6 (二)吉林省农业区划概述 ．．． ．．7 1．长白山地区 ．7 2．东部半山区 ．8 3．中部平原区 。 一8 4．西部平原区 ．．8 (三)吉林省农业区划产业分析 9 1．灰色关联度数学模型基本步骤 一9 2．吉林省各农业区划农林牧渔产业分析 1 0 二、吉林省农业空间变迁 ．．12 (一)空间集聚理论 ．．12 (二)吉林省农、林、牧产业空间集聚分析 ．．13 1．吉林省各县域农、林、牧产业全局空间自相关分析 ．：．13 2．吉林省各县域农、林、牧产业局部空间关联性分析 14 3．总结和政策含义 ．j ．15 三、吉林省农产品分析 16 (一)吉林省农产品县域优势分析 一16 1．吉林省农作物产品重点县域优势分析 。 16 2．吉林省畜牧业产品各县域优势分析 ．20 (二)吉林省主要农产品区域供应情况分析和预测 ．．21 1．GM(1，1)模型的建模预测步骤 ．2