某医药公司产品组合优化(内部资料)资料.pptVIP

June 4-8, 2004 Choice Symposium May 4-7, 2003 PMSA Annual Conference, Orlando FL From Pipelines To Portfolios Min Ding Pennsylvania State University Jehoshua Eliashberg University of Pennsylvania Choice Symposium June 4-8, 2004 Outline Optimizing New Drug Pipeline – one business opportunity Ding and Eliashberg, 2002, Management Science From Pipelines to Portfolios – many business opportunities Some theoretical insights An empirical demonstration -- GlaxoSmithKline Terms Used in Presentation Indications Also known as disease Each indication is considered as one business opportunity e.g., AIDS We use the terms “pipeline or project” to represent the NPD structure for a given indication We use “approach” to represent a specific way (e.g., a compound, a biological molecule) of drug development tailored for a given indication. Therapeutical Classes Also known as therapeutical areas, groups, or categories e.g., Anti-infective products Each class has many different indications We use the term “portfolio” to represent the NPD structure for many different indications, within or across different therapeutical classes. A portfolio has many different pipelines (or projects). Optimizing New Drug PipelineAn Example Bristol-Myers Squibb wants to develop a preventive HIV vaccine ... NPD in Pharmaceutical Industry Optimizing New Drug PipelineModel Output For each phase in development, we derived the expected reward, variance, and likelihood of having a successful drug candidate. For example, for Phase III, they are, respectively, We solve for the optimal number of approaches to be supported at each phase in development Optimizing New Drug PipelineOne Key Insight - A Pattern of Underspending? (Ding and Eliashberg, Management Science, 2002) Firms Target Multiple Business Opportunities– a survey of new drug portfolios in 1450 firms on 12/31/2002 From Pipelines to Portfolios A conventional approach to portfolio construction Portfolio const