基于承灾体的区域灾害链风险评估模型.PDF

第34 卷第1 期 系统工 程 学 报 Vol.34 No.1 2019 年2 月 JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS ENGINEERING Feb. 2019 基于承灾体的区域灾害链风险评估模型 荣莉莉, 刘玙婷 (大连理工大学系统工程研究所, 辽宁大连116024 ) 摘要: 重大突发事件往往引发次生灾害, 形成灾害链, 产生更严重的灾害后果. 辨识灾害链风险, 有利于事先的断 链减灾, 避免灾害的进一步扩大. 针对重大突发事件类型繁多、作用区域不同的特点, 本文提出了一种适应不同事 件及区域的灾害链风险评估模型. 通过分析突发事件灾害链的形成机理, 辨析出了区域灾害链风险的关键构成要 素—–承灾体, 并从灾害链形成的致灾因子和孕灾环境角度, 建立了区域灾害链风险评价指标及度量标准. 在此基础 上, 构建了区域灾害链风险评估模型. 最后, 针对某具体区域进行了灾害链风险评估, 辨识出了该区域的固有灾害 链风险, 以及不同灾害情景下可能形成的灾害链, 验证了所提方法的可行性和有效性. 关键词: 区域; 灾害链; 承灾体; 风险评估; 突发事件 中图分类号: X4; N94 文献标识码: A 文章编号:2019 doi: 10.13383/ki.jse.2019.01.011 Modeling the evaluation for regional disaster chain risk based on elements at risk Rong Lili, Liu Yuting ( Institute of Systems Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China) Abstract: Major emergencies usually trigger secondary disasters which may form disaster chains and cause more serious consequences. Evaluating disaster chain risk can help implement chain-cutting disaster mitiga- tion and avoid amplifying the consequence. Considering that major emergencies have various types and may occur in diverse regions, this paper proposes an evaluation model of regional disaster chain risk for different emergencies and different regions. Through analyzing the formation mechanism of disaster chain, this paper recognizes the core elements of disaster chain risk, i.e. the elements at risk, and builds evaluation indexes of regional disaster chain risk from both hazard and disasters-pregnant environment perspectives. On this basis, the evaluation m