基于ESDA的中国西部省域产业结构的实证分析.docVIP

基于ESDA的中国西部省域产业结构的实证分析 摘要：通过在全域和局域内进行检验，表明西部省域产 业结构间存在空间依赖性，提出了研究产业结构变化的空间 误差模型，对西部1 2省域产业结构变动进行了空间计量回 归。结果显示，西部省域产业结构间存在明显的空间依赖性; 产业结构的初始值、人均GDP、全社会固定资产投资等因 素对产业结构变化的影响具有显著的空间变异现象，说明这 些因素对产业结构的影响存在显著差异的原因是所在区域 的不同。基于此两点，得出结论：西部1 2省区应该作为一 个系统整体分析，纳入空间依赖性要素，结合相邻省域的产 业结构状况来考虑推进省域产业结构的高度化，针对性地提 出促进西部省域产业升级的对策建议。 关键词：ESDA;西部省域产业结构；空间计量经 济模型；产业结构升级 中图分类号：F 1 2 7文献标识码：A文章编号：0439 -8 11422-4719-05 Empirical Analysis of the Western China’ s Provincial Industrial Structure base on ESDA LIU Wen-q i ang, ZHANG Li Abstract： In the global a n d local area within the ins p e c t i o n , it was the western prov n c e area that exist ed the s p a t i a 1 dependence be tween indus trial structures, the resea r c h of the changes in i n d u s t rial structure of spatial e r r o r model was put forward， and the 1 western provinces were p e r f o r m e d the domain of indus trial structure changes by spatial econometric regres sion. The results showed t h a t : The industrial structure of Western provinces in the space be tween the distinct dependence was confirmed； The indus trial structure of the i n i t i a 1 value, per capita GDP, t o t a 1 fixed asset investment on the impact of changes in industry structure had sign ificantly spatial variabil ity of the phenomenon, that these factors which inf 1 u e n cedon the industrial struct u r e were significant differen c e exists because of differ e n t areas. Based on these t w o points, the authors conclu d e d ： 12 western provinces an d autonomous regions as a w h ole system analysis should include the elements of spat i a 1 dependence, combined w i t h the adjacent industrial structure of provincial s t a t u s t o consider of promoting the advancement of industri a 1 structure Provincial, t h e n promoting industrial u p g rading western provinces co untermeasures were put forward. Key words： E S D A ； western a r e a s provincial industrial struct u r e ； spatial econometric mo del； the upgrading of the in dustrial structure 周边区域