基于不同分布曲线的常州市暴雨组合概率.pdfVIP

第37卷第2期 水 利 水 电科 技 进 展 2017年3月 Vol.37 No.2 Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources Mar. 2017 DOI:10.3880/ j.issn.1006 7647.2017.02.012 基于不同分布曲线的常州市暴雨组合概率 胡尊乐,张 悦,李 丹,汪 姗 (江苏省水文水资源勘测局常州分局,江苏 常州 213022) 摘要:基于常州雨量站1951—2015年的年最大1d、3d 降水量资料,利用Copula联结函数构建联合 分布函数,推算相应的同现重现期和组合风险率,并以此为基础,评价常州市2015年“6 ·26”暴雨 可能的重现期和风险率。 结果表明:某一设计标准下的年最大1d、3d 降水遭遇时的同现重现期大 于年最大1d或3d 降水单变量对应的重现期;同一设计频率的暴雨遭遇的风险率较高,且随着重 现期增大而减小;“6 ·26”暴雨的同现重现期为218a,同现风险率为17.4%,此次暴雨具有特殊性 和罕见性,常州市未来的防洪形势将更为严峻。 关键词:暴雨组合;联结函数;年最大1d 降水;年最大3d 降水;常州“6 ·26”暴雨 中图分类号:P333.2 文献标志码:A 文章编号:1006 7647(2017)02 0068 05 Probability of rainstorm combinations in Changzhou City based on different distribution curves/ / HU Zunle, ZHANGYue,LI Dan,WANG Shan(Changzhou Branch of Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau,Changzhou213022,China) Abstract:Based on annual maximum 1-day and3-day rainfall data from the Changzhou precipitation station from 1951to 2015,ajoint distribution function was constructed using the Copula function,and the corresponding co-occurrence return period and risk of rainstorm combination were calculated. Then,the function was used to evaluate the probable return period and risk of a rainstorm in Changzhou City onJune26,2015. The results show that the co-occurrence return period when the annual maximum 1-day and 3-day rainfall according to a certain design standard encounter is larger than the respective return periods of annual maximum 1-day and3-day rainfall. The riskwhen two rainstorms with the same design frequency encounter is higher,and will decrease with the increase of the corresponding return period. The co-occurrence return period of the rainstorm in Changzhou on June 26 is 218 years, when