概率统计英文讲义Walpole02.pptVIP

Probability Statistics for Engineers Scientists, byWalpole, Myers, Myers Ye ~Chapter 2 Notes Probability Intro The sample space S of an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes. We must understand the sample space in order to determine the probability of each outcome occurring. The sample space is a set, the domain of the probability function. Each probability value, p, is a real number 0 ? p ? 1. Important: The sum of the probabilities for all elements in the sample space always equals 1. Why is this important? This fact allows us to check our answers. Properly enumerating the sample space is key to correctly calculating probabilities. A tree diagram is sometimes useful. Events An event is a subset of a sample space (E ? S) Note that both S and ? are events as well. Sample spaces can be continuous or discrete. What is a continuous vs. discrete sample space? Example: Life in years of a component. S = ? S = {t | t ? 0} = “all values of t such that t ? 0” A = component fails before the end of the fifth year. A = {t | t 5}. Example: Flip a coin three times. S = ? S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT} Event A = 1st flip is heads. A = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT} Event/Set Operations The complement of an event A? The set of all elements of S not in A. Denoted A’. A = 1st flip is heads. A’ = first flip is not heads. The intersection of two events A and B? The set of all elements in both A and B. Denoted A ? B. B = 2nd or 3rd flip, but not both, are heads. B = {HHT, HTH, THT, TTH}. A ? B = ? A ? B = {HHT, HTH} Two events are mutually exclusive if…? A ? B = ? The union of two events, A and B? The set of elements in either A or B. A ? B = ? A ? B = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT , THT, TTH}. Venn Diagrams Venn Diagrams show various events graphically, and are sometimes helpful in understanding set theory problems. Standard set theory results hold: A ? ? = ? A ? ? = ? A ? A’ = ? A ? A’ = ? S’ = ? ?’ = ? (A’)’ = ? (A ? B)’ = ? (A ? B)’ = ? (A ? B)’=A’ ? B’,