基于博弈的分析供应链协调机制及道德风险问题.docx

南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文 摘 要 进入新世纪，新的竞争环境要求企业竞争的优势要素做出转移，导致了企业 管理模式的改变，供应链管理思想就是在这样的竞争环境下出现的。因为供应链 是由不同利益主体构成的合作型系统，各成员企业在追求自身利润最大化的同 时，往往与系统整体目标产生冲突。协调和控制供应链成员间的物流、信息流、 资金流，实现降低成本，提高利润和服务水平，使整个供应链获得的利益大于各 成员企业单独获得的利益之和，是重中之重。对不同市场环境下供应链协调机制 和契约的选择，以及相关的道德风险研究，显得非常有意义。 本文采用定性和定量相结合的方法，运用博弈论以及委托代理理论的相关知 识，研究供应链模型及其协调问题。首先从定性角度讨论关于供应链协调的相关 理论，影响因素及实现模式，从宏观上把握供应链协调问题；然后选取具有实际 意义的一些典型变量因素，构造了两阶段供应链协调模型，适用于不同的市场环 境；在这基础上，定量分析四种不同市场环境下，供应链协调方式的选取、协调 契约的设定、协调效果的比较以及有可能引发的道德风险问题；最后，针对之前 的研究成果，结合我国现状，评价相关协调契约的优缺点，并对道德风险问题提 出防范措施。 本文在构建柔性供应链协调模型、分析道德风险问题方面做了一些尝试性工 作，从博弈分析的角度定量研究了不同市场环境下供应链协调的效果，希望借此 引起业内外专家学者对这一课题的关注，进而对供应链协调问题开展更加深入的 研究。 关键词：供应链，协调，博弈论，道德风险，不对称信息 i 基于博弈分析的供应链协调机制及道德风险问题 ABSTRACT In the new century, the new competition environment requires the corporations to transfer their competitive advantages, which results in changes of the management mode. The birth of supply chain management is one of them. The supply chain is a cooperative system made up of constitutors with different benefits. When every member pursues to optimize its own benefits, the conflicts with the whole interest of the system will usually come out. So the most important thing is to control and coordinate the logistics, information and bankroll stream among the supply chain constitutors in order to reduce the cost, to enlarge the benefit margin, to improve service quality, and to make the whole benefit of the supply chain more than the sum of all separate benefits. As a result, it is significant to do research on choosing coordination mechanism and stipulation, as well as on relevant moral hazard of the supply chain. This thesis is to employ both qualitative and quantitative methods and use the game theory and the principle-agent theory to study the supply chain model and its coordination. First it gives some relevant theories, influencing factors and implementation models from qualitative aspects to demonstrate a general picture. Then it chooses some typical variables to construct a two-stage supply ch