乔治索罗斯关于金融市场跟泡沫演讲全文文档.docxVIP

2009年10月，乔治·索罗斯在位于匈牙利布达佩斯的中欧大学发表了共分五个部分的系列演讲。本文是他关于金融市场和泡沫的演讲的全文。 Financial MarketsPublished: October 27 2009 22:26 | Last updated: October 27 2009 22:26?? Financial markets provide an excellent laboratory for demonstrating and testing the ideas that I put forward in an abstract form yesterday. The course of events is easier to observe than in most other places. Many of the facts take a quantitative form, and the data are well recorded and well preserved. The opportunity for testing occurs because my interpretation of financial markets directly contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, which has been the prevailing theory about financial markets. That theory claims that markets tend towards equilibrium; deviations occur in a random fashion and can be attributed to extraneous shocks. If that theory is valid, mine is false—and vice versa.?? I am not in a good position to criticize the prevailing paradigm directly. I went into the financial markets in order to make money, and to do that I did not need to know either modern portfolio theory or the theory of rational expectations. I developed my own interpretation of financial markets and put it forward as a clear alternative to the prevailing view. When I published The Alchemy of Finance in 1987 I frankly admitted my ignorance of the generally accepted theories. No wonder that the economics profession reciprocated by ignoring my interpretation. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, did me the honor of explicitly dismissing my theory, but most other economists simply ignored it.?? All this has changed in the wake of the recent financial crisis. Events have conclusively demonstrated the inadequacy of the efficient market hypothesis. It neither predicted nor explained what happened. At the same time, my writings provided a conceptual framework in terms of which events could be better understood. They began to be taken seriously, both by others–like Mervyn King–and by myself. I began to think that my i