流域场次暴雨洪水相似性分析的可拓模型构建及应用-水文学及水资源专业论文.docx

AbstractDuring Abstract During every stage of flood control operation，finding out the similafity degree between a current rainstorm flood and histofical rainstorm floods，and making eriective use of the generating and developing information of similar rainstorms and floods in history,are a fresh method tO improve real—time flood．con订ol forecasting system．At present，similarity analysis of rainstorms and floods has not been carried OUt effectively in large river basins of China．An extension model for similarity analysis of rainstorms and floods iS established based on tlle research area of Son曲uajiang River Basin，which is a useful trial for developing similar analysis in large fiver basins． Firstly,similarity analysis index system of rainstorms and floods iS studied and summarized through the three levels，which are atmospheric process，generating and developing processes of rainstorm and flood．Secondly,the extension theory is introduced and the relevant methods are applied to resolve the similarity analysis problems，Whieh ale difficult to identify subjectively from multi．angles and multi—directions．ne idea of searching out the similarity degree through comparing the amount of rainfatl in the whole river basin iS brought forward．For realizing it． cumulative average rainfall and the number of rain gauge stations involved in a time interval of rainstorms are selected as two characteristic indices to estimate the proximit、r of the amount of rainfall between sub—basins．Then by evaluating the relative magnitude of rainstorms in the whole fiver basin．山e analysis of similar rainstorms is made．and the similarity analysis extension modeliS established．In the similarity analysis of floods．t11e extension mode】is developed which takes the avarage water level and average flow of key stations as two characteristic indices． Moreover,the novel extension neural network is ingoduced．and similarity analysis extension nearal network model is built on the characteristic indices used previou