电力负荷预测.docxVIP

河南机电高等专科学校毕业设计/论文 PAGE II 河南机电高等专科学校毕业设计/论文 PAGE I 摘 要 电力负荷预测是电力系统规划的重要组成部分，也是电力系统经济运行的基础，其对电力系统规划和运行都极其重要。 　　 电力负荷预测包括两方面的含义，即用以指安装在国家机关、企业、居民等用户处的各种用电设备，也可用以描述上述用电设备所消耗的电力电量的数值。 　 电力负荷预测是以电力负荷为对象进行的一系列预测工作。从预测对象来看，电力负荷预测包括对未来电力需求量（功率）的预测和对未来用电量（能量）的预测以及对负荷曲线的预测。其主要工作是预测未来电力负荷的时间分布和空间分布，为电力系统规划和运行提供可靠的决策依据。 负荷预测是电力系统调度、用电、计划和规划等管理部门的重要工作之一。提高负荷预测技术水平,有利于用电管理,有利于合理安排电网运行方式和机组检修计划,有利于节煤、节油和降低发电成本,有利于制定合理的电源建设规划,有利于提高电力系统的经济效益和社会效益。 本文的第一章主要介绍了负荷预测的概念、分类与特点,以及负荷预测的基本步骤和误差分析;在第二、三章介绍了各类电力系统负荷预测的常用方法的特点和适用范围,着重分析了一些预测新技术,如灰色预测、专家系统预测、神经网络预测、小波分析预测等的模型结构、功能特点、适用范围,并说明了各类方法在电力系统的实际应用情况;同时,在第四章还提出了几种综合负荷预测模型,并介绍了利用遗传算法、蚁群算法优化权重的方法;第五章阐述了一些提高负荷预测精度的措施。 关键词： 电力系统 负荷预测 电网运行方式 ABSTRACT Power system load forecasting is an important part of planning is the basis for economic operation of power system, its power system planning and operation are extremely important. Load forecasting, including two meanings, that is used to refer installation in the state organs, enterprises, residents and other users at a variety of electrical equipment, can also be used to describe the power consumed by electrical equipment, power values. Load forecasting power load for the object is a series of forecasting. View objects from the forecast, load forecast including future power demand (power) of the forecast and future consumption (energy) load forecast and the forecast curve. Its main job is to predict the future distribution of power load and spatial distribution of the time, for the power system planning and operation to provide a reliable basis for decision making. Scheduling of power system load forecasting, electricity, planning and planning one of the important work of management. Improve the load forecasting technology is conducive to electricity management, is conducive to operation mode and reasonable arrangements for unit maintenance scheduling will help save coal, fuel economy and reduce the cost of power generation, power is conducive to the development of r