利用相乘性分解模式与相加性季节变动模式分析-水土保持学系-中兴.DOC

水鳥種數時間數列分析之研究 陳鴻烈(1) 國立中興大學水土保持學系教授 (1) 國立中興大學水土保持學系教授 (2) 國立中興大學水土保持學系博士班研究生 摘要 本研究以大肚溪口鳥類調查資料計算水鳥種數 (Number of species)，並利用相乘性分解模式與相加性季節變動模式進行大肚溪口水鳥種數之時間數列分析，以瞭解78至96年間大肚溪口水鳥種數變化情形。兩模式之水鳥種數長期趨勢 (T) 都顯示隨著時間 (t) 而減少。在相乘模式中，其間的關係可表示為 T = 61.575586 - 0.04532t；相加模式中則可表示為 T = 61.638312 - 0.046083t，其中 t = 1, 2, 3, … 228。在季節變動 (S) 方面，結果顯示相加與相乘模式每年皆有二個高峰期，分別在四月與十一月。在循環變動 (C) 中發現，約兩年即為一個次循環。而不規則變動 (I) 則顯示兩模式皆呈不規則變化。由上述可知，兩模式之結果大致相同，且大肚溪口水鳥種數明顯下降。 (關鍵詞：相乘性分解模式、相加性季節變動模式、時間數列) Time Series Analysis of Waterfowl Species Paris Honglay Chen, Caroline Mengjung Chou Professor, Department, Graduate Student, Department of Soil and Water Conservation, National Chung-Hsing University, Taichung, ABSTRACT The objectives of this study were to maturate and compare two practical procedures for time series analysis of waterfowl species in Da-du estuary, at central part of Taiwan. A multiplicative decomposition method as well as an additive decomposition method have been adapted to determine the species variations, including long-term (T), seasonal (S), circular (C), and irregular (I). The two methods indicated a similar result: (1) Both showed a long-term trend (T) decreased with time (t), as following equations, (A) T = 61.575586 - 0.04532t for multiplicative decomposition method, (B) T = 61.638312 - 0.046083t for additive decomposition method; (2) There are two seasonal high peaksin April and November each year; and (3) A circular change, every two years. Both methods were reasonably well to present the waterfowl species changes numerically. (key words: Multiplicative decomposition method, Additive decomposition method, Time series)