自然灾害对经济增长影响地实证研究.docVIP

PAGE 1 羈自然灾害对经济增长影响的实证研究 衿 ——基于动态异质面板模型 莃The Empirical research on Economic Influence of Natural Disasters 袄 ——Based on the Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Model 肈安徽财经大学 宋峰、黄蓓、李小庆 羆 肅摘要：世界各地近年频发自然灾害，为探析其对经济增长的影响，本文基于在新古典增长模型基础上建立的自然灾害与经济增长的理论模型，依据国际紧急灾害数据库(EM-DAT)和美国夕法尼亚大学国际比较研究中心的宾州世界表（Penn World Table 6.3）中的相关数据，运用动态异质面板模型对经过筛选的全球45个国家1960-2007年间自然灾害与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。本文在国内外相关经验研究的基础上，首先通过固定效应模型和随机效应模型初步探析二者关系，再运用动态异质面板模型作进一步分析。实证结果表明，动态异质面板模型更具优越性。总体而言，自然灾害促进长期经济增长，抑制短期经济增长；而具体到各个国家，短期的影响方向又会因经济发展水平不同而存在差异。最后指出了研究中的不足，并提出了未来的改进方向。 蚃关键词：自然灾害；经济增长；动态异质面板模型 膈Abstract: The recent years have witnessed frequent natural disasters all over the world. In order to analyze the impact on economic growth, this paper, based on the theoretical model of natural disasters and economic growth developing from the neoclassical growth model and according to relevant data of the International Emergency Disasters Database (EM-DAT) and Penn World Table 6.3 from American University of Pennsylvania Center for international Comparison, uses dynamic heterogeneous panel model to give empirical analysis to the relationship between natural disasters and economic growth in the filtered 45 countries between 1960-2007. With the help of relevant experience at home and abroad, This study firstly explores the initial relationship between the two through the fixed effect model and the random effect model, and then use dynamic heterogeneous panel model for further analysis. The empirical results show that the dynamic heterogeneous panel model has more advantages. Overall, natural disasters promote long-term economic growth, and inhibit short-term economic growth. There exist different short-term effects resulting from different levels of economic development to each specific country. Finally, the paper points out the deficiencies and proposes future improvement direction. 莇Keywords: Natural disasters; Economic growth; Dynamic heterogeneous panel model 螇 蒂 螈一．引言 芄自然灾害为自然环境本身所固有的现象，在威胁人类生存的同时