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Overcoming Barriers to Riches迈向致富之路 Edward C. Prescott Arizona State University and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 爱德华 . 普雷斯科特 美国亚利桑那州立大学凯瑞商学院教授 Key Development Facts关于发展的几个主要的事实 Prior to 1700, constant living standard varied little across countries and over time.在1700年之前，各个国家与各个时代的绝对生活水准基本上没有变化。  After 1700, living standards began to increase in some countries.在1700年之后，有些国家的生活水准开始提高。 After 1850, they doubled every 35 years – modern economic growth.在1850年之后，这些国家的生活水准每35年翻一番 — 进入了现代经济增长 。 Explosive Growth Post-1800 1800年后的迅猛增长 U.S. Per Capita GDP美国人均 GDP England entered modern growth first, U.S. and Western Europe a little later.英国最早进入现代经济增长，美国与西欧紧接其后。 Many countries entered much later (post-1950).很多国家迟至1950年后才开始进入现代经济增长。  As a result, income disparities widened to their current huge levels.这是当今富国与穷国之间巨大的收入不平等的主要原因。 Some late starters have caught up; some have not.有些后起步者已经赶了上来，另一些则没有。 Regional Growth Patterns各区域增长的格式 Theory of Pre-1700 Period通常理论对于1700年前的解释 Land crucial to production. Trade-off between living standards and population size.土地是生产至关重要的因素。生活水准与人口之间的取舍。 Increases in stock of useable knowledge lead to increase in output. But, population increases lead to no increase in living standards.有用的知识的积累导致土地产出的增加。但是人口的增长却使得生活水准停滞不前。  Why: Groups maximized living standards subject to constraint that they could defend their land.每个社会必须在有足够多的人口保卫领土的前提下提高生活水准。 Theory of Post-1850 Period通常理论对于1850年后的解释 No trade-off between increases in living standards and population size.不再需要在生活水准与人口之间取舍。 Increases in stock of useable knowledge lead directly to increases in living standards.有用的知识的积累直接导致生活水准的提高。  Key feature is the use of fossil fuels for energy rather than land.关键是现代生产依赖矿物燃料为能源，土地的重要性下降。 Problem with Theory通常理论的漏洞 Why didn’t all countries start modern economic growth at the same time?为什么所有的国家没有同时进入现代经济增长的过程呢？  Parente and Prescott’s theory: A society’s productivity does depend on the set of constraints society imposes as well as the s