考虑载荷状态不确定性的柔性多状态开关可靠性模型-中国电机工程学报.pdf

第 39 卷 第 6 期 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Vol.39 No.6 Mar. 20, 2019 1592 2019 年 3 月 20 日 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2019 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. DOI ：10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.180434 文章编号：0258-8013 (2019) 06-1592-11 中图分类号：TM 56 考虑载荷状态不确定性的柔性多状态 开关可靠性模型 1 1 1 2 2 2 刘文霞 ，徐雅惠 ，李乔乔 ，许烽 ，王朝亮 ，裘鹏 (1．新能源电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学) ，北京市 昌平区 102206 ； 2．国网浙江省电力有限公司电力科学研究院，浙江省 杭州市 310014) Reliability Model of Flexible Multi-state Switch Considering the Uncertainty of Loading State 1 1 1 2 2 2 LIU Wenxia , XU Yahui , LI Qiaoqiao , XU Feng , WANG Chaoliang , QIU Peng (1. State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources (North China Electric Power University), Changping District, Beijing 102206, China; 2. State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Research Institute, Hangzhou 310014, Zhejiang Province, China) ABSTRACT: In order to characterize the effects of loadings 该文提出一种改进的柔性多状态开关可靠性建模方法。首先 on the reliability of flexible multi-state switch, an improved 考虑配电网源荷不确定性，采用蒙特卡洛模拟和优化潮流方 reliability modelling method was proposed. First, in view of the 法求解绝缘栅双极型晶体管(insulated gate bipolar transistor， uncertainty of source and load, Monte Carlo simulation and IGBT)模块的电流载荷期望，建立计及随机电流载荷影响的 optimal power flow method were combined to solve the current IGBT 等效可靠性模型；其次，分析子模块故障率与电压载 loading expectation of the insulated gate bipolar transistor 荷的关系，基于桥臂均压策略，采用数学归纳法建立子模块 (IGBT). On this basis, the equivalen