城际铁路客运的运营组织研究1.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 36 摘 要 城际客运铁路是一种新型的公交化快速轨道交通系统，城际列车作为铁路运输企业的拳头产品，在其设计和推向市场的过程中，运输企业应对城际列车的经营效果进行预测并作相应控制。在了解了国内外城际旅客列车运营现状的基础上，根据我国铁路客运现状，提出了城际列车的概念，着重分析了城际列车在开行条件、运行距离、服务质量等方面的要求；从分析影响旅客列车客运量的因素入手，利用灰色理论构建旅客列车开行方案的客运量GM(1，h)预测模型并评价其经济效益和经营风险，为铁路运输企业设计旅客列车开行方案提供科学依据；提出两种符合中国国情的城际旅客列车运营模式，为城际列车的运营和发展奠定了良好的基础；通过对公交化城际列车的运营时刻表及其优化进行深入研究，有助于旅客运输市场多种资源的有效利用；最后针对城际列车的管理体系提出了相应的战略对策，以保证旅客运营的相关决策更加经济化、合理化。 关键词：铁路 城际列车 客运量预测 运营模式 公交化时刻表 Summary The intercity passenger dedicated railway is a new kind of public transport fast orbit traffic system, the intercity train as the key product of the railway transportation enterprise, during its design with push onto the market, the transportation enterprise should forecast and control the management effect of the intercity train.Understanding the operational status of the intercity passenger dedicated railway at home and abroad, according to the present situation of railway passenger transportation in China, put forward the concept of the intercity train, emphatically analyses the request of the beginning conditions, trip distance Service Quality...etc.;Start with analysising influences travellers railway train passenger transportations factor of the quantity commence and making use of gray theories to set up the passenger transportation that travellers railway train starts passenger volume GM(1, h)predicting the model and evaluatesing its economic benefit and business risk,for the railway transportation enterprise to provide the scientific basis of passenger train beginning scheme;Put forward two kinds of intercity passenger train conforming to the situation in china, establish the good foundation of the intercity train operation and development;During the further study of the public trasport intercity train’s operation timetable and optimize, helpful to the effective utilization of the passenger transport market multi-resources;At last, according to the management system of the intercity train,put forward the corresponding strat