论文素材(中美贸易战.docVIP

Financial Times 报道 1: Will the US-China trade war impact on global growth? The US decision to impose tariffs on $200bn of Chinese imports marked a serious escalation in its hostilities with Beijing over trade. Yet economists believe protectionist measures will have only a modest impact on global growth — provided the bilateral conflict does not turn into an all-out multilateral war. These four charts help explain why. International trade in goods has already fallen as a proportion of global output in recent years, despite the upswing in the world economy. This is partly because of currency effects and changes in commodity prices, but manufacturers are also becoming less reliant on imported inputs and popular hostility to globalisation may also be playing a part, with trade disputes and the use of anti-dumping measures on the rise even before the latest rounds of tariffs. 2.So far, tariffs affect only a small proportion of global trade Although the US-China conflict now looks likely to affect the vast majority of the goods traded between the two countries, it makes up a modest proportion of global trade. Even if the US acts on all the threats it has made so far, only around 5 per cent of global imports would be affected 3.For most countries, trade ties with near neighbours are the most important World trade is largely concentrated in three regions: North America, Europe and East Asia, with a large share of trade being intra-regional. Emerging markets may benefit if the dispute leads China to trade more with neighbours in south-east Asia. International trade is largely composed of trade flows between rich countries and the East Asian region but developing countries ’trade with China is increasingly important. A big question now is whether other countries in south-east Asia are able to benefit from greater integration with China as existing trade flows are diverted to new markets, and if Chinese manufacturers seek to shift production to countries not aff