(宏观经济学-东伊利诺伊大学).pptVIP

Copyright ? 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 12-* Figure 12.7 - Real Wage Growth Aspirations and Productivity Copyright ? 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 12-* Expected Inflation The natural rate of unemployment and expected inflation together determine the position of the Phillips curve higher expected inflation moves the Phillips curve upward Copyright ? 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 12-* Expected Inflation There are three basic scenarios for how inflation expectations are formed static expectations prevail when people ignore the fact that inflation can change adaptive expectations prevail when people assume the future will be like the recent past rational expectations prevail when people use all the information they have as best they can Copyright ? 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 12-* The Phillips Curve under Static Expectations If inflation expectations are static, expected inflation never changes the trade-off between inflation and unemployment will not change from year to year If inflation has been low and stable, businesses will probably hold static inflation expectations Copyright ? 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 12-* Figure 12.9 - Static Expectations of Inflation Copyright ? 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 12-* Static Expectations of Inflation in the 1960s In the 1960s, the Phillips curve did not shift up or down in response to changes in expected inflation when unemployment was above 5.5%, inflation was below 1.5% when unemployment was below 4%, inflation was above 4% The economy moved along a stable Phillips curve Copyright ? 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 12-* Figure 12.10 - Static Expectations and the Phillips Curve, 1960-1968 Copyright ? 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 12-* The Phillips Curve under Adaptive Expec