自上而下的城能源消耗碳排放估算方法-中国环境科学.PDFVIP

中国环境科学 2019,39(1) ：420~427 China Environmental Science 自上而下的城市能源消耗碳排放估算方法 景侨楠,侯慧敏, 白宏涛,徐 鹤* (南开大学战略环境评价研究中心,天津 300350) 摘要：快速的城镇化进程带来城市碳排放的快速增长,准确的城市水平碳排放数据对于制定科学合理的碳减排政策极为关键, 明确碳排放源的关键类别 可以做到有的放矢和精准管控.但是目前中国碳排放数据的研究主要集中在国家､地区和省级层面,城市水平由于所需基础数据的不透明和不准确,长久 以来缺乏完整的碳排放清单.为解决该问题,在以前相关研究的基础上,通过省级能源平衡表,尝试利用合理的分配指标从省级碳排放数据估算出下属城 市的碳排放,构建了一套自上而下的城市能源消耗碳排放估算方法.通过与现有可获得的城市水平数据进行对比,发现估算差距均在 10%以内,证明了该 方法的可行性和准确性,并尝试在时间尺度进行了扩展.为获取在时间和空间上均连续的中国城市能源消耗碳排放数据提供了科学的方法和合理的思 路,也能为各城市分配减排任务和城市间进行减排协商提供可靠的数据支撑. 关键词：碳排放；城市；估算方法；能源平衡表 中图分类号：X24 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2019)01-0420-08 A top-bottom estimation method for city-level energy-related CO emissions. JING Qiao-nan, HOU Hui-min, BAI Hong-tao, XU 2 * He (Research Center for Strategic Environmental Assessment, Nankai University, Tianjin 300350, China). China Environmental Science, 2019,39(1)：420~427 Abstract ：Due to the fast process of urbanization in China recently, rapid growth of urban carbon emissions has been greatly brought about, it’s generally recognized that accurate city-level carbon emission data are crucial for formulating scientific and reasonable carbon emission reduction policies. By clarifying the key categories of carbon emission sources, different kinds of carbon emissions can be targeted and precisely controlled. However, recent researches on carbon emissions were mainly concentrated at the national, regional and provincial levels, and due to the opacity and inaccuracy of the required basic data, complete carbon emission inventories for general prefecture cities have not been well compiled for a long period. To solve the problem, on the basis of previous studies, the provincial energy balance table and reasonable distribution indicators are used to estimate carbon emissions in su