台风移动路径与累积降雨关系之研究.doc

PAGE PAGE 1 颱風移動路徑與累積降雨關係之研究 The Study of Relations between Typhoon Track and Accumulated Rainfall 研究生：黃丰儀 Huang, Feng-Yi 指導教授：許中立 Hsu, Chuang-li 【摘要】 臺灣因地理位置環境特殊颱風為最大的災害來源，且近年來因颱風災害伴隨而來的豪大雨頻率漸高，因此若能在災害發生前的預防工作當中掌握時間、空間及規模三大面向的訊息，可提供防災預測工作有效的參考。 本研究以近50年的歷史颱風路徑與降雨資料為基礎，分析探討九大颱風路徑對臺灣北、中、南、東各區域的影響顯著性。將影響較顯著之路徑，再依颱風強度分類而探討其與累積雨量之關係。另亦統計分析颱風強度的差異與海拔高程之累積降雨機率變化。 由研究結果得知，颱風的移動距離越近之雨量測站，其累積雨量有越大之趨勢，但在近颱風中心的區域其間的關係趨勢則有相反的情形。再者，同屬於相同路徑分類的颱風，彼此行進的方式仍有所差異，且受各區域的地形高程等環境因素影響，使得部分颱風案例所顯示之趨勢較為特殊。累積降雨機率分析發現，各路徑之累積降雨量多為0 ~ 1800 mm，但以0 ~ 600 mm的降雨機率為最高。 關鍵字：颱風路徑、颱風強度、防災預測、累積降雨機率 【Abstract】 In Taiwan, typhoon is the biggest meteorological calamity because of the special geographical position environment, and the frequency of typhoon calamity with bold heavy rain is getting higher in recent years.Therefore it can offer the valueable reference on the prevention work of calamity with three types of information-grasped: prediction in time, location and scale. This research collects the historical typhoon tracks and the rainfall data in the past 50 years,probing into dominance of nine major impacts on each area of typhoon track on the north, middle part, southern, and eastern area-divided of Taiwan separately.To sort the typhoon with strong route-influenced and make the classification based on the different intensity. Also probe the relations with the accumulation of rainfall. According to statistical analysis, the accumulative rainfall will be higher with the closer moving distance. But the result is opposite in the centre area of typhoon. Besides the movement of typhoon are different even in the same typhoon category since the environmental height in different region and other reasons, some special cases were shown. About the probability analysis of accumulative rainfall, the accumulative rainfall of every route is mostly around 0 ~ 1800 mm,and it is highest rainfall probability Keywords：Typhoon track, Typhoon intensity,Calamity prediction, Probability of Accumulated rainfall