高盛最新：2017年的十大投资主题PPT.pptx

OurTopTen themes are: 1. Expected returns: Only slightly higher US fiscal policy: A pro-growth agenda US trade policy: Concerns are likely overdone EM risk: ‘Trump tantrum’ is temporary Trump and trade: Hedge with RMB Monetary policy: Focusing the toolkit on credit creation Corporate revenue growth recession: Signs of inflection Inflation: Moving higher across DM The next credit cycle: Kinder and gentler The ‘Yellen Call’ 2.0: Now with ‘contingent knock-in’ 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Charles P. Himmelberg (917) 343-3218 | charles.himmelberg@ Goldman, Sachs Co. Francesco Garzarelli +44(20)7774-5078 | francesco.garzarelli@ Goldman Sachs International Robin Brooks (212) 902-8763 | robin.brooks@ Goldman, Sachs Co. Silvia Ardagna +44(20)7051-0584 | silvia.ardagna@ Goldman Sachs International Kamakshya Trivedi +44(20)7051-4005 | kamakshya.trivedi@ Goldman Sachs International Lotfi Karoui (917) 343-1548 | lotfi.karoui@ Goldman, Sachs Co. Kenneth Ho +852-2978-7468 | kenneth.ho@ Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. 17 November 2016 Global Markets Analyst Top Ten Market Themes For 2017: Higher growth, higher risk, slightly higher returns Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to /research/hedge.html . Goldman Sachs Higher growth, higher risk, slightly higher returns We expect a lack of investment opportunities to remain an enduring challenge for investors in 2017. We think this despite the fact that economic growth will likely pick up in 2017 vs the somewhat disappointing performance in 2016. Indeed, over the past several months, the growth rate of global GDP already appears to be realizing at the top of the 3%-3½% range that has prevailed throughout the past five years.The main reason is the swing in the financial conditions impulse from sharply negative