1971要2018年迁西县气温变化特征分析.PDF

现代农业科技 圆园19 年第15 期 资源与环境科学 1971要2018 年迁西县气温变化特征分析 1 2 郭金海 杨 鹏 1 2 河北省迁西县气象局袁河北迁西 064300 曰 石家庄市气象局冤 摘要 用迁西县1971 2018 年逐日气象数据以及趋势分析尧突变检验等统计方法袁分析了该区域气温的变化遥结果表明袁迁西县气 温呈升高的趋势袁年变化幅度略小于全省平均水平曰气温的年代际变化在1990 年代达到最大之后除春季外又有所回落袁但变化幅度不大曰 迁西县的气温在20 世纪80 90 年代存在时间序列的突变过程袁其中年气温尧春季气温尧冬季气温在20 世纪突变上升趋势明显遥该研究可 以为当地合理利用热能资 提供理论参考遥 关键词 气温曰线性拟合曰滑动平均曰Mann-Kendall 突变检验曰河北迁西曰1971 2018 年 中图分类号 P423.3 文献标识码 A 文章编号 1007-5739渊2019冤15-0195-03 开放科学 资源服务冤标识码 OSID 冤 Analysis of Temperature Change Characteristics in Qianxi County from 1971 to 2018 GUO Jin-hai 1 YANG Peng 2 1 2 渊 Qianxi County Meteorological Bureau in Hebei Province 袁Qianxi Hebei 064300 曰 Shijiazhuang Meteorological Bureau冤 Abstract Based on the daily weather data during 1971-2018 in Qianxi County 袁using statistics method such as trend analysis and M-K sudden change test 袁this paper analyzed the temperature changes in this area.The results showed that the temperature in Qianxi County increased during these years 袁and the annual change amplitude was slightly smaller than that of the provincial average level as a whole.The decadal change of temperature reached its maximum in the 1990s 袁but declined in a small range except the temperature change in spring.There was a sudden change process of the temperature from 1980s to 1990s 袁the annual temperature 袁spring temperature and winter