人口信息人口决策支持系统建设.pptVIP

2.多维家庭人口预测模型 世界上第一个集人口与家庭为一体的人口预测模型体系。预测居住状态家庭户的规模、结构、分布，对研究家庭人口与消费、居住、环保等具有重要意义。 Multidimensional household model（系统主界面） Household characteristic and distribution, living arrangement One person only One person and other Married couple, no co-residing kids Married couple, with co-residing kids Lone mother, with co-residing kids Lone father, with co-residing kids Three generation household % of old people age 80+ who living in the collective household Type of household Type of household 微观仿真人口预测模型 借鉴国际最前沿方法，利用蒙特卡洛（Monte Carlo）随机仿真技术，对个体全生命历程进行跟踪仿真，汇总得出人口、家庭的整体特征和分布，较精细地模拟个体生命周期复杂