中国的男孩偏好和婚姻挤压-人口与经济.pdf

2006 4 No. 4, 2006 ( 157 ) POPULATION ECONOMICS (Tot. No. 157) * 初婚与再婚市场的综合分析 1 2 3 4 李树茁 , 姜全保 , 伊莎贝尔阿塔尼 , 费尔德曼 ( 1 , 710049; 2 , 710049; 3; 4 ) : 中国强烈的男孩偏好和对女性的歧视 致了婚姻市场上严重的男性婚姻挤压本文使用中国 2000 年普查数据和所预测的2001 2050 年人口数据, 结合初婚和再婚市场设计了度量婚姻挤压的指 标, 测度了2001 2050 年中国的婚姻挤压程度, 考察了男孩偏好和再婚因素对中国未来婚姻挤压的影 响结果表明未来中国婚姻市场每年有 10% 15% 男性过剩人口, 达到 120 万人男孩偏好 致的高 出生性别比显著影响未来婚姻市场, 而再婚人口对婚姻市场上过剩人口也有显著影响 : 男孩偏好; 婚姻市场; 婚姻挤压; 出生性别比; 再婚 : C92- 05 : A : 1000- 4149 (2006) 04- 0001- 08 Son Preference and the Marriage Squeeze in China: An Integrated Analysis of the First Marriage and Remarriage Market 1 2 3 4 LI Shuzhuo , JIANG Quanbao , Isabelle ATTANE Marcus W. FELDMAN ( 1. Institute for Population and Development Studies, School of Public Policy and Administration, Xian Jiaotong University, Xian, Shaanxi Province, 710049; 2. School of Management, Xian Jiaotong University; 3. Frech National Institute for Demographic Studies; 4. Morrison Institute for Population and Resource Studies, Stanford University) Abstract: In China, strong son preference and discrimination against girls have resulted in male squeeze in the marriage market. Using projection data and marriage information in 2000 census, we devise a series of indexes taking account of both first marriage and remarriage, measure the extent of male squeeze in China s market from 2001to 2050, and analyze the impact of son preference and remarriage on marriage