统计降尺度方法研究进展综述-南水北调与水利科技.pdf

第 11 卷 第3 期 南 水 北 调 与 水 利 科 技 Vol.11 No. 3 2013 年 6 月 South2to2 North Water Transfers and Water Science Technology Jun. 2013 doi : 10. 3724/ SP. J. 1201. 2013. 03118 张明月, 彭定志, 胡林涓 ( 北京师范 学 水科学研究院, 北京 10087 ) : 统计降尺度方法是将 气环流模式GCMs 输出的低分辨率的气象资料转换为流域尺度的主要方法之一, 现 已发展成为气候学中较为完善的领域。简要介绍了统计降尺度方法的基本原理, 包括基本假设条件及主要步骤和 关键点; 重点介绍统计降尺度方法, 致分为转换函数法、天气分析技术和天气发生器这三类, 并对几种方法的国内 外应用进展做了阐述; 对统计降尺度方法的不确定性研究做了简要介绍。指出未来研究应重点研究统计降尺度模 型的适用条件及范围、提高降水模拟的精度; 统计降尺度与动力降尺度两种降尺度结合的方法将是降尺度主要发展 方向之一。 : 统计降尺度; 研究进展; 统计降尺度方法; 不确定性分析 : P333 :A : 16722 1683( 2013) 032011820 Research Progress on Statistical Downscaling Methods ZH ANG Ming2yue, PENG Ding2zhi, HU Lin2juan ( College of Water Sciences,Beij ing ormal University, Beij ing 10087 , China) Abstract: Statistical downscaling met hod is one of the methods t hat transform the met eorological data w ith low resolut ion GCMs output to the basin scale data, and this method has been studied in depth and w idely used in the area of climatology. In this pa2 per, the basic principles of the statist ical dow nscaling method were int roduced, including the basic assumptions, main steps, and key points.The statistical downscaling met hods can be classified into the transfer funct ion method, weather t yping method, and weather generator model, and the applications of each method were also introduced.T he uncert aint y analysis of t he st atistical dow nscaling method w as briefly int roduced. Moreover, the future study of the statistical dow nscaling method should focus on its applicable conditions and range and the im provement of precision of precipitat ion simulation. Finally , it w as pointed out that the