资料与方法-第三军医大学学报.doc

基于疾病风险指数的重庆市社区居民脑卒中发病风险评估方法 李娜，伍亚舟，易东（400038 重庆，中国人民解放军第三军医大学军事预防医学院卫生统计教研室） [作者简介] 李娜（1984-），女，山西太原人，在读硕士研究生，从事健康评价系统的研究。E-mail:sophiasindy@126.com [通信作者] 易东,电话: (023E-mail: yd＿house@ 基金项目：国家自然科学基金（the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No; 国家自然科学基金（the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No; [摘要] 目的 建立一种适合重庆市社区居民脑卒中发病风险预测方法，为预防脑卒中的发病提供理论依据。 方法 采用病例-对照研究的方法，在重庆市沙坪坝区疾病预防与控制中心的社区居民健康普查资料基础上，利用非条件Logistic回归模型筛选脑卒中主要危险因素，根据危险因素与疾病的关联强度，把相对危险度转化为疾病危险分值，并与2002年中国居民营养与健康状况调查报告文献资料中不同性别人群的危险因素暴露率结合，利用疾病风险七等级划分标准，预测个体脑卒中发病风险。 结果 建立不同性别的脑卒中危险分值及人群平均危险分值表，对个体相对于同性别一般人群疾病风险划分等级并量化。 结论 疾病风险指数能有效地对个体健康与疾病风险分层与量化，帮助识别可修正的行为与生活方式危险因素，是个性化的健康教育与健康促进的有力依据。 [关键词] 疾病风险指数；疾病风险等级；脑卒中 An algorithm based on Disease Risk Index for predicting individual stroke risk in community residents in Chongqing Li Na, Wu Yazhou, Yi Dong (Department of Health Statistic, Collage of Military Preventive Medicine, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, 400038, China) [Abstract] Objective To establish a prediction method for individual stroke risk in Chongqing, and serve it as a theoretical basis of stroke prevention. Methods Based on an epidemiological survey of chronic disease in the community population in Chongqing, Logistic regression analysis on the original data was carried out to screen the main risk factors of stroke. We translated the relative risk associated with an exposure into a number of disease risk points. The prevalence of risk factor was taken from the China National Nutrition and Health Survey documents in 2002.We next used a Disease Risk Seven-level Scale to rank stroke risk in relation to the population average. Results We developed a disease risk points and population average points table of main risk factors of stroke, with specification to gender. An individual’s risk for a given or total Chronic diseases relative to those in the general population of the same gender as the individual is