我国大型石油集团财务运行控制与差异分析方法.docVIP

我国大型石油集团财务运行控制与差异分析方法 白寅1 马向阳2 （1、2 天津大学管理与经济学部 天津300072） 摘 要：为解决石油集团海量财务数据实时监控的问题，本文将统计质量控制技术应用到财务管理领域，并根据财务管理目标与质量控制目标的差异性，提出了一种均值可变的控制图，命名为“财务运行风险控制图”，并就控制图的控制界限、关键参数选择等问题展开了讨论。石油集团财务管理所涉及的数据层级较多，结构复杂，即使观测到汇总数据存在异常波动，也难以诊断导致这些波动的根本原因。鉴于此，提出了一种“财务树”数据结构，用以格式化财务表格。财务树是进行下一步差异分析的基础，差异分析是在财务树上自上而下层层分解展开的。在差异分析阶段，本文提出了一种“问题诊断矩阵”技术，问题诊断矩阵是对财务运行风险控制图的进一步深化，它将多个科目的异常波动在同一个矩阵中展示，并比较差异的大小及其对上一级指标的影响强度。最后通过案例分析演示了预算执行预警控制的流程，并显示了方法的实用性。 关键词： 财务控制图；财务树；问题诊断矩阵；方差分析；大型石油集团 Financial Control and Variance Analysis for Large Chinese Oil Group Company Yai Bin 1, Xiangyang Ma 2 (1 College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Abstract: To monitor large-scale mass of financial data of large oil group, identify and diagnose financial problems, a time-varying-target financial risk control chart is proposed in this paper. Method for calculating target and control limits of the control chart is given, subsequently. Then, a Financial Tree data structure is defined to format the traditional financial statements. Based on the tree, a problem diagnosis matrix method for variance analysis is proposed to conduct a level by level variance analysis along the financial tree started from the root to the leaves of the tree. The matrix enables the same level items to compare their fluctuations simultaneously in two dimensions: the contribution to their parent node’s variance and the fluctuation degree compared to their history. The abnormal leaves founded by the problem diagnosis matrix are the sources of variance we are looking for. At last, an example is given to illustrate the whole risk control and variance analysis process meanwhile shows the practicability of the proposed method. Keywords: Financial Control Chart, Financial Tree, Problem Diagnosis Matrix, Variance Analysis, Large Oil Group Company 一、引言 随着国际国内市场竞争的加剧，我国石油集团的生存环境日益复杂。国际金融危机的爆发使全球的石油公司均不同程度受到冲击。我国的石油集团更是遭遇了从未有过的“寒冬”。这一打击考验了我国石油集团公司的财务管理水平，使得他们深刻地意识到，唯有对公司外部、内部情况的变化做出快速反应才能降低经营风险、抢占市场机遇。要做到快速反应的第一步是察觉到公司外部、内部情况的变