德意志银行-图解xx宏观经济-2017.7.31-.pdfVIP

Deutsche Bank Research Global Economics Special Report Date 31 July 2017 Zhiwei Zhang, PhD Chief Economist China Macro in Charts (CMiC) (+852 ) 2203 8308 zhiwei.zhang@ The risk to our H2 growth outlook has shifted to the upside. High frequency data suggests land supply and auctions remained hot in July. As we China Macro in Charts (CMiC) is highlighted in the last issue of CMiC, the strong land sales will lead to a a comprehensive chart pack positive fiscal shock in H2. Consistent with this resumed boom in the that covers four broad themes: property/land market, financial leverage rose in June after dropping in earlier (1) economic activities and price months. Meanwhile, capital outflows seem to have picked up. development; (2) monetary and The land market continues to boom in July capital market development; (3) trade, capital flows, and RMB High frequency data indicate both land supply and auctions remained strong in exchange rate; and (4) fiscal July. The volume of land supply surged by 15.6% yoy 3mma in July, up from