德意志银行-南非行业研究-sa golds：sa gold 3q17，riches to rags-20170705-deutschebank.pdfVIP

SA Golds Deutsche Bank Markets Research Sub-Saharan Africa Industry Date South Africa SA Golds 5 July 2017 Gold Industry Update SA Gold 3Q17: riches to rags Patrick Mann, CFA Neutral gold price outlook from here leaves us negative on the equities We expect the USD-gold price to remain around US$1,250/oz over 2017E-2019E. Research Analyst In this note, we upgrade our 2017 USD-gold price by +4% to USD$1,250/ +27-11-775-7282 oz (largely marking second quarter to spot) and tweak 2018E-2022E lower by between -0.4% and -1.7%. We have made no changes to recommendations, we Key Changes have made minor price target adjustments and we have updated our financial Company Target Price Rating ANGJ.J 145.00 to forecasts for the new commodity prices. Earnings are upgraded for FY1 owing to 150.00 our 4% higher forecast USD-gold prices, but remain below FY0 (fiscal year 2016) HARJ.J 20.00 to 19.00 for all producers except for Harmony (which benefits from profitable hedges year- Source: Deutsche Bank on-year). With a neutral outlook for the gold price, we are bearish on the sector Companies featured over the medium-term as we expect margin compression to continue. We retain