德意志银行-xx行业研究-china container board：1h preview，a strong beat at peakcycle margins-20170712-deutschebank.pdfVIP

Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia Industry Date China China 12 July 2017 Resources Containerboard Forecast Change Johnson Wan 1H preview: a strong beat at peak- Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6163 cycle margins johnson.wan@ 1HCY17 to see record-high core EPS growth of 59%/47% yoy for LMP NDP Key Changes We expect 1HCY17 earnings to be at record-highs, with LMP/NDP seeing Company Target Price Rating earnings up by 59%/47% respectively. NP/t to reach HKD800/ RMB382 for 2314.HK 6.25 to 8.06(HKD) - LMP/ NDP on our estimates vs. consensus FY17E NP/t at HKD571/ RMB322. 2689.HK 6.61 to 7.00(HKD) - However, these margins are unlikely to be sustainable with larger mills losing Source: Deutsche Bank share to smaller mills on production halts, high downstream inventories and significant new supply in 2018. Of the two, we prefer LMP over NDP given its