德意志银行-亚洲信贷-asia credit monthly：a volatile carry-20170721-deutschebank.pdfVIP

Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia Credit Date 21 July 2017 Harsh Agarwal, CFA Research Analyst Asia Credit Monthly (+65 ) 6423 6967 harsh.agarwal@ A volatile carry Viacheslav Shilin, MBA Research Analyst (+65 ) 6423 5726 We had argued in our 2H Outlook on June 1 that 3Q will be a carry play as the viacheslav.shilin@ battle between Economics (good macro data) and Politics (geopolitical noise) continues. This has largely been the case, with spreads almost flat and 10yr Vikash Agarwalla, CFA UST about 5bp wider as we write. Total return since June 1 is +0.5% vs. Research Analyst +3.2% seen till end of May (Figure 1). We maintain our view for the rest of 3Q (+65 ) 6423 5718 and will take a stance on 4Q depending on how the following events play out - vikash.agarwalla@ Asias earnings season in August, German elections in September, US political gridlock debt ceiling issue, RMBs appreciation trend (key risk to the China Karen Kwan, MBA bid), heavy supply, oil price, etc. Though valuations have looked tight for