德意志银行-美国的下一次衰退-20170612-deutschebank.pdfVIP

Deutsche Bank Research Global Economics Date North America Global Economic 12 June 2017 Perspectives The Next US Recession ■ Long-term yields in the US have fallen substantially more than short-term Peter Hooper, PhD yields in recent months, causing several measures of the yield curve slope Chief Economist to approach the flattest levels since the crisis. This market reaction follows +1-212-250-7352 a string of disappointing data in the US, as well as news emanating from Washington that has lowered the odds of meaningful fiscal stimulus. Michael Spencer, PhD Given the yield curves ability to predict historical downturns, the recent Chief Economist flattening could raise concerns that the next US recession is just around +852-2203 8303 the corner. Torsten Slok, PhD ■ Despite this development, we do not see US recession risk as particularly elevated; indeed, we think it is quite low for the next year. While recession Chief Economist probability models based only on the yield curve slope point to higher +1-212-250-2155 recession risk, our preferred recession probability model, which also Matthew Luzzetti, PhD includes the Feds policy stance and a measure of the corporate bond risk premium, currently suggests that the odds of a recession over the next Senior Economist 12 mont